The South African rand (ZAR) is known for its volatility against major currencies such as the US dollar (USD). This fluctuation can have significant impacts on individuals and businesses alike and by understanding these impacts and knowing how to manage and mitigate them, you can navigate the financial landscape more effectively. In this article we will take a closer look at how the volatility of our local currency can have an impact on every South African’s financial affairs to better understand and anticipate these changes. In next week’s article we will unpack what strategies can be put in place to manage and mitigate the impact of our fluctuating currency on your finances.
Table of Contents
1. Import and export costs
Impact on imports
When the rand weakens, the cost of imported goods rises. This can affect a wide range of products, from electronics and appliances to clothing and food. For consumers, this means higher prices in stores. For businesses that rely on imported raw materials or products, increased costs can lead to lower profit margins or the need to pass on price hikes to customers. This can affect competitiveness and consumer spending.
The most influential and important imported item for the South African economy is crude oil, needed for transport fuel. The price of oil on the international market is typically quoted in US dollars, therefore, the exchange rate between our local rand and the US dollar plays a significant role in determining the cost of oil imports. When the rand weakens against the US dollar, it becomes more expensive to import oil and considering the cost of oil is an important input cost for most items, it will have a knock-on effect, increasing prices of most items in the economy, leading to inflation.
Impact on exports
On the other hand, a weaker rand makes South African exports cheaper and more attractive to foreign buyers. This can benefit local industries, particularly those in the manufacturing and agricultural sectors, by boosting demand for their products abroad. Increased export activity can lead to higher revenues, job creation, and economic growth. However, exporters may also face challenges if they rely on imported components, as their input costs will rise.
2. Inflation
A fluctuating rand can contribute significantly to inflationary pressures. When the rand depreciates, the cost of importing goods increases, leading to higher prices for consumer goods and services. This can reduce purchasing power, as people’s incomes do not stretch as far. High inflation can also erode savings, reduce the real returns on investments, and create uncertainty, which can affect consumer confidence and spending. Central banks may respond to inflation by raising interest rates, which can have further economic implications, such as higher borrowing costs.
3. Investment and savings
Foreign investments
For investors with assets denominated in foreign currencies, a weaker rand can increase the value of these investments in rand terms, providing a buffer against local currency depreciation. This can be beneficial for those holding shares, bonds, or real estate abroad. However, a stronger rand can have the opposite effect, reducing the rand value of foreign investments.
Local savings
For those with savings in rand, a weakening currency can erode the real value of their money, reducing their purchasing power over time. This is particularly concerning for retirees and others living on fixed incomes. Inflation linked to currency depreciation can also affect the real returns on savings and investments, making it important to consider inflation-protected assets.
4. Travel and education
Travel
A weaker rand makes international travel more expensive. This can affect holiday plans, business travel, and the cost of goods and services purchased abroad. Travel expenses such as accommodation, dining, and transportation can become significantly more costly, leading to reduced travel frequency or shorter trips. Conversely, a stronger rand can make international travel more affordable, encouraging more spending abroad.
Education
For students studying abroad or planning to, a fluctuating rand can substantially impact the cost of tuition and living expenses. A weaker rand means higher costs for tuition fees, accommodation, books, and daily expenses, which can strain family finances or increase the need for student loans. Planning and budgeting for potential currency fluctuations are crucial to avoid financial strain.
It is clear that every South African investor and consumer will be affected by the value of the rand in some shape or form. It is therefore important to understand what the driving forces are behind the changing value of the rand to better understand how and when it will impact your personal situation. In next week’s article we will consider ways to mitigate and manage the impact of our volatile currency on your personal financial situation.
